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Some comments on the Syrian conflict

22 May 2013

Dear friends,

Here I would like to share with you my last interview at the show: A Mano Limpia. Although is in Spanish, I hope a friend or relative can help you understand the interview. Syria is going through the worst nightmare a nation can experience and the world cannot keep looking to the other side while hundreds of thousands of civilians are killed. This bloodshed must stop and in this interview I tried to explain that unfortunately, the President of the Republic, Bashar al-Assad, would never step down voluntarily and that he will fight until the end. Bashar has not other place to go and he saw what happen to other dignitaries like him in Tunisia, Libya, Yemen and Egypt. Bashar is buying time and believes that once the storm has passed, he will be able to find his momentum in order to appear again as the saviour of the Middle East, like his father and himself did in several occasions in the past.

 It is quite unthinkable for many Syrian and common citizens to consider how such a murderer will be able to survive politically but this is what is actually happening. Bashar knows that Syria without the Ba’ath regime would easily collapse because among other things the party and the president control most of the Army and Security forces. Bashar is playing the sectarian card very well and he instigating sectarian violence in the country with the only purpose of dividing more the syrian people and showing the rest of the Arab world that a Syrian without him would fall into a sectarian war that would potentially destabilized the entire Middle East.

 There is not an easy solution to the Syrian conflict but Russia and China are doing their homework so far while the West keeps loosing his time discussing weather or not to support the resistance militarily against the government. Rebel groups need to be supported military and financially and this is a risk the United States and NATO are not willing to take after the chaotic intervention in Libya and the poor results achieved in Egypt. Unfortunately, the Arab Spring did not bring the change and stability that we all were waiting for and there are many doubts about how the Rebel army can managed a post-war scenario in the country. The conflict is stuck and without a clear intervention from a third party it is very unlikely that this conflict will be resolved military.

 The conflict in Syria will continue this summer and I am afraid the situation will get worst in the coming months. The Unites States has shown that is not ready to get its hand dirty in the Syrian quagmire while Russia and China seem to be very committed to the survival of the President and the current regime. This means little hope for the Syrian population and refugees that are watching hopelessly how world leaders are failing to find a viable solution for their country or at least a ceasefire that would help both parties to star a dialogue.

Daniel F. Rivera

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